Started Apr 01, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 14, 2022 02:00AM UTC

Between 1 April 2022 and 30 September 2022, will lethal confrontations between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel (forces) of Armenia and Azerbaijan result in 100 or more fatalities?

Armenia and Azerbaijan most recently battled over the Nagorno-Karabakh region in 2020, with periodic skirmishes since despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Eurasianet, Deutsche Welle). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results in a fatality (total, not each) for forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, the forces of Artsakh, the breakaway Armenian-majority republic in Nagorno-Karabakh, are considered Armenian forces.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 13 September 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 54.71%
No 45.29%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 94
Average for questions older than 6 months: 239
Number of Forecasts 312
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.572
2.
-1.374
3.
-1.211
4.
-1.209
5.
-1.157

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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