Started Apr 08, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 08, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 8 April 2022 and 8 October 2022, will NATO or a NATO member state publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of having provided lethal aid to Russia after 24 February 2022 for use in Ukraine?

As the war in Ukraine continues, the US and others have voiced concerns over China possibly providing support for Russia's war effort (BBC, ABC News). For the purposes of this question, "lethal aid" means any weapon, ammunition, or other equipment or material that is designed to inflict serious bodily injury or death (Cornell - 10 USC §2557, effectively the inverse of 10 USC §2557(d)(1)(B)). Examples of lethal aid include bullets, warplanes, missiles, and armed drones, but would not include surveillance equipment, body armor, medical supplies, intelligence, etc. An accusation need not explicitly characterize aid as "lethal aid" to count so long as the accusation includes enough detail to ascertain that the aid given was lethal, but the accusation must assert that the lethal aid was provided for use by Russia in Ukraine. Recent examples of an accusation of lethal aid being provided include Russia and China arming the military junta in Myanmar and Turkey providing armed drones to Ethiopia (Deutsche Welle, US News & World Report).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 9 October 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 4.30%
No 95.70%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 167
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 668
Average for questions older than 6 months: 673
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.006
2.
-0.006
3.
-0.006
4.
-0.006
5.
-0.006

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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