What will be the value of the FAO Cereals Price Index for February 2023?

Started Apr 08, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Indicies, which in the past has been predictive of popular unrest, has reached historic highs (Axios, Slate). The question will be suspended on 28 February 2023 and the outcome determined using nominal data reported by the FAO for Cereals for February 2023, expected in early March 2023 (FAO, see table near bottom of page). As of launch, the value for the Cereals Price Index for March 2022 was 170.1. To download historical nominal data, click either "Excel" or "CSV" above the chart titled "FAO Food Price Index in nominal and real terms."

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The question closed "More than 140.0 but less than 160.0" with a closing date of 1 March 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 120.0 1%
Between 120.0 and 140.0, inclusive 12%
More than 140.0 but less than 160.0 85%
Between 160.0 and 180.0, inclusive 2%
More than 180.0 but less than 200.0 0%
Between 200.0 and 220.0, inclusive 0%
More than 220.0 but less than 240.0 0%
240.0 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 48
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 353
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.177
2.
-0.142
3.
-0.125
5.
-0.11

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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