Started Apr 15, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 05, 2022 07:01AM UTC

David Epstein asks:

What will be total regular season attendance at Major League Baseball games in 2022?

While Opening Day for baseball was postponed due to contract issues between team owners and the player's union, MLB has a full 162-game season scheduled for 2022 (CBS Sports, MLB). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Baseball Reference (Baseball Reference, see "Attendance" column).

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The question closed "Between 60 million and 65 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 5 October 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 40 million 0%
Between 40 million and 45 million, inclusive 0%
More than 45 million but fewer than 50 million 0%
Between 50 million and 55 million, inclusive 0%
More than 55 million but fewer than 60 million 5%
Between 60 million and 65 million, inclusive 90%
More than 65 million but fewer than 70 million 5%
Between 70 million and 75 million, inclusive 0%
More than 75 million 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 67
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 238
Average for questions older than 6 months: 673
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.061
2.
-0.061
3.
-0.053
4.
-0.051
5.
-0.05

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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