Started Apr 22, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 08, 2022 08:01AM UTC

As of 8 November 2022, how many birds in commercial and backyard flocks will have confirmations of highly pathogenic avian flu (HPAI) in 2022, according to the USDA?

HPAI outbreaks across the US have already led to the deaths of millions of commercial and "backyard" birds (ABC News, Farm Bureau, NPR). The question will be suspended on 8 November 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA's) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS). To download the data, first click "Birds Affected" in the table titled "List of Detections by Day." Then click "Download" between "Share" and "Full Screen" in the ribbon below that table. In the new window that pops up, click "Data." In the additional window that pops up, scroll to the bottom of the page and click "Download all rows as a text file." Data will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 15 November 2022. As of 20 April 2022, the total number of birds involved in 2022 HPAI confirmations was 30,950,653.

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The question closed "More than 50 million but fewer than 70 million" with a closing date of 9 November 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 40 million 0%
Between 40 million and 50 million, inclusive 78%
More than 50 million but fewer than 70 million 22%
Between 70 million and 100 million, inclusive 0%
More than 100 million but fewer than 150 million 0%
150 million or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 31
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 281
Average for questions older than 6 months: 673
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.156
3.
-0.141
4.
-0.133
5.
-0.115

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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