Started Apr 22, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 09, 2022 03:00AM UTC

Tylerdurden03 asks:

Who will be elected mayor of Los Angeles, California, in 2022?

Incumbent Mayor Eric Garcetti is term limited, leaving the candidate field open for the "voter-nominated" (aka "nonpartisan) top-two primary scheduled for 7 June 2022 and the general election scheduled for 8 November 2022 (Ballotpedia, CA Sec. of State - Primary Elections, Politico).

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The question closed "Karen Bass" with a closing date of 8 November 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Karen Bass 63%
Rick Caruso 37%
Kevin de León 0%
Someone else 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 48
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 292
Average for questions older than 6 months: 673
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.26
2.
-0.256
3.
-0.215
4.
-0.199
5.
-0.122

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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