Started Apr 29, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 18, 2022 10:16PM UTC

Between 29 April 2022 and 1 December 2022, will the United States launch either an ICBM or a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?

After the US delayed then canceled an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Russia subsequently tested a new ICBM of its own (US News & World Report, Space.com). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched ICBM or SLBM will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), then open source reporting if needed (CSIS). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. A missile will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the ICBM left the ground or SLBM cleared the water and its first stage ignited.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 15 June 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 13.00%
No 87.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 79
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 216
Number of Forecasts 218
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 538
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.175
2.
-1.174
3.
-1.168
4.
-1.168
5.
-1.167

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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