Question 3 of 27 in Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Started Apr 29, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Dec 02, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Between 29 April 2022 and 1 December 2022, will the United States launch either an ICBM or a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?

After the US delayed then canceled an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Russia subsequently tested a new ICBM of its own (US News & World Report, Space.com). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched ICBM or SLBM will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), then open source reporting if needed (CSIS). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. A missile will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the ICBM left the ground or SLBM cleared the water and its first stage ignited.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Yes 11.50% +0.00%
No 88.50% -0.00%

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