Started Apr 29, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

David Epstein asks:

Before 1 November 2022, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least ten million student loan borrowers?

Democrats continue to push President Biden to cancel most, if not all, federal student loan debt (CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Nerd Wallet). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect.

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NOTE 25 August 2022: We are aware of President Biden's announcement yesterday regarding his plans for student loan forgiveness. As no official action has been taken yet as best we can tell, the question will remain open. We also received a clarification request asking if any executive action would count. The answer to that question is no, it must be a signed executive order. Legislation becoming law during the question's open period to also count.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 November 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 12.44%
No 87.56%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 135
Average for questions older than 6 months: 238
Number of Forecasts 502
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.501
2.
-0.487
3.
-0.482
4.
-0.48
5.
-0.48

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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