Started Apr 29, 2022 08:15PM UTC   •   Closed May 28, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the US domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for Top Gun: Maverick reach or exceed $45 million, according to Box Office Mojo?

Top Gun: Maverick is the first sequel to the 1986 blockbuster Top Gun (IMDb). The question will be suspended on 27 May 2022 and the outcome determined using non-estimate data as reported by Box Office Mojo for the Memorial Day weekend of 27-30 May 2022 (Box Office Mojo, see "Domestic Weekend"). The film is scheduled to be released in theaters on 27 May 2022.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 31 May 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 91.50%
No 8.50%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 63
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 216
Number of Forecasts 110
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 538
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.013
4.
-0.013
5.
-0.013

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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