Started Apr 29, 2022 08:15PM UTC   •   Closed May 17, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Which of the following songs will rank highest on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of 21 May 2022?

The question will be suspended on 16 May 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Billboard for the "Week of May 21, 2022," expected on Tuesday 17 May 2022 (Billboard). "Ranking highest" means ranking highest among the five songs and does not necessarily mean ranking first overall.

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The question closed "First Class, Jack Harlow" with a closing date of 17 May 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
As It Was, Harry Styles 78%
Enemy, Imagine Dragons X JID 5%
First Class, Jack Harlow 7%
Heat Waves, Glass Animals 5%
Stay, The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber 5%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 45
average for questions in their first 3 months: 182
Number of Forecasts 75
average for questions in their first 3 months: 397
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.959
2.
-0.796
3.
-0.645
4.
-0.582
5.
-0.556

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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