Started May 13, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 01, 2022 02:00PM UTC

Between April 2022 and June 2023, when will Japan's Consumer Price Index all items less fresh food (CPI ex FF) exceed 2.0% for three consecutive months?

On 28 April 2022, the Bank of Japan released a statement saying, among other things, that it "will continue expanding the monetary base until the year-on-year rate of increase in the observed consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) exceeds 2 percent and stays above the target in a stable manner" (Bank of Japan - Monetary Policy Releases 2022, Bank of Japan - Statement on Monetary Policy 28 April 2022). The outcome will be determined using data from the Statistics Bureau of Japan as reported by e-Stat (e-Stat - CPI). For February 2022, Japan's year-over-year CPI ex FF was 0.6% (e-Stat - CPI March 2022, download Table number "1-1, Subgroup Index for Japan" for "Monthly" and see sheet "am01-1 (3)" for "Monthly, % Change over the year." The relevant data are under "All items, less fresh food." The question could close as of the first day after the third consecutive month of CPI ex FF above 2.0%. The previous 12 months of data are also available at Trading Economics (Trading Economics).

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The question closed "Before September 2022" with a closing date of 1 July 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before September 2022 100%
Between September 2022 and January 2023 1%
Between February 2023 and June 2023 0%
Not before July 2023 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 26
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 216
Number of Forecasts 46
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 537
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.041
2.
-0.04
3.
-0.04
4.
-0.037
5.
-0.036

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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