Started May 20, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 20 May 2022 and 31 December 2022, will the 7-day rolling average of daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China reach or exceed 100,000?

The Omicron variant is challenging China's zero tolerance approach to COVID-19, with the current aggressive lockdown policy also having implications for the global economy (Time). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Our World in Data (OWiD) (OWiD, parameters set in link). Revisions made to figures for a specific date published more than 21 calendar days from that date are immaterial. The question will resolve using the data available no later than 7 January 2023, though the question would close early if requisite data indicate a 7-day average greater than 100,000, as of at least 7 calendar days after the date of all pertinent data. As of launch, the 7-day rolling average on 16 May 2022 was 6,957.71.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 50.18% +0.00% -0.68% +44.37%
No 49.82% -0.00% +0.68% -44.37%

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