erikbays asks:

Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of an ECOWAS member state in Western Africa before 1 April 2023?

Started May 27, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

War and conflict have left millions in Western Africa facing potential famine (Food and Agriculture Organization, Africa Report, Integrated Food Security Phase Classification - Mapping Tool). The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is made up of fifteen member countries that are located in Western Africa (ECOWAS). Whether a member state is suspended would be immaterial. For general information on how famines are declared, see: NPR. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration would not count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.63%
No 99.37%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 60
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 261
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.294644
2.
-0.281707
3.
-0.273181
4.
-0.270889
5.
-0.266503

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username