erikbays asks:

Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of an ECOWAS member state in Western Africa before 1 April 2023?

Started May 27, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

War and conflict have left millions in Western Africa facing potential famine (Food and Agriculture Organization, Africa Report, Integrated Food Security Phase Classification - Mapping Tool). The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is made up of fifteen member countries that are located in Western Africa (ECOWAS). Whether a member state is suspended would be immaterial. For general information on how famines are declared, see: NPR. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration would not count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.63%
No 99.37%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 60
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 261
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.294644
2.
-0.281707
3.
-0.273181
4.
-0.270889
5.
-0.266503

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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