David Epstein asks:

Will Finland and/or Sweden become members of NATO before 1 January 2023?

Started May 27, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

On 18 May 2022, the countries of Finland and Sweden both submitted applications to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), though Turkey has raised some objections (NATO, CNBC, Al Jazeera). The latest country to join NATO was North Macedonia on 27 March 2020 (NATO).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, Finland only 1%
Yes, Sweden only 1%
Yes, both Finland and Sweden 4%
No 94%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 345
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 1306
Average for questions older than 6 months: 596
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.964
3.
-0.954
4.
-0.954
5.
-0.942

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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