Started Jun 03, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 28, 2022 08:03PM UTC

David Epstein and Foxes ask:

Will Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter close before 1 January 2023? 

After Elon Musk announced his bid to buy Twitter in April 2022, various developments have put the deal into question (Twitter, CNN, The Hill). When Twitter announced that it accepted Musk's offer, it stated that the transaction "is expected to close in 2022" (SEC - EDGAR). The question would close early upon the official termination of the deal per filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 27 October 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 79.44%
No 20.56%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 215
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 756
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.597
2.
-1.591
3.
-1.494
4.
-1.308
5.
-1.119

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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