What will be the 12-month moving average of median wage growth for "Paid hourly" workers in April 2023?

Started Jun 10, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Increasing labor costs are a big part of the overall inflation story in the US (CNBC, Society for Human Resource Management, Politico). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Atlanta Fed's "Wage Growth Tracker" (Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker, with "Interactive Chart" selected, click "Hourly workers" under "12-month moving averages (unweighted, hourly)"). In April 2021, the 12-month moving average for "Paid hourly" was 3.4%.

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The question closed "Between 6.0% and 8.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 May 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 2.0% 0%
Between 2.0% and 4.0%, inclusive 4%
More than 4.0% but less than 6.0% 24%
Between 6.0% and 8.0%, inclusive 72%
More than 8.0% 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 42
Average for questions older than 6 months: 229
Number of Forecasts 219
Average for questions older than 6 months: 637
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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