Started Jun 17, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jun 25, 2022 03:00PM UTC

Will federal legislation mandating or enabling enhanced background checks for gun purchasers under the age of 21 in the US become law before 8 November 2022?

In the wake of several mass shootings in the US, a bipartisan group of senators announced an agreement on various gun control and mental health policy changes for consideration in Congress (Senate.gov - John Cornyn, AP, Guardian). For the purposes of this question, "enhanced" means anything to increase scrutiny of a prospective gun purchaser, though it need not cover the purchase of every type of gun.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 25 June 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 90.00%
No 10.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 41
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 78
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 527
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.73
2.
-0.65
3.
-0.605
4.
-0.485
5.
-0.463

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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