Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
How many US House seats will Republicans win in the 2022 midterm elections?
Closed Nov 09, 2022 03:00AM UTC
The 2022 midterm elections are scheduled for 8 November 2022, when Republicans hope to regain control of the House of Representatives (Politico, FiveThirtyEight). The outcome will be determined using 2022 election results. If a Republican candidate appears on the ballot and receives the most votes, that seat would count toward the total irrespective of the incapacitation of that candidate (e.g., CNN).
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The question closed "Between 218 and 228" with a closing date of 8 November 2022.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Fewer than 207 | 1% | |
Between 207 and 217 | 7% | |
Between 218 and 228 | 39% | |
Between 229 and 239 | 39% | |
Between 240 and 250 | 10% | |
More than 250 | 4% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 88 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 188 | |
Number of Forecasts | 406 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 544 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |