Started Jun 24, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 09, 2022 03:00AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many US House seats will Republicans win in the 2022 midterm elections?

The 2022 midterm elections are scheduled for 8 November 2022, when Republicans hope to regain control of the House of Representatives (Politico, FiveThirtyEight). The outcome will be determined using 2022 election results. If a Republican candidate appears on the ballot and receives the most votes, that seat would count toward the total irrespective of the incapacitation of that candidate (e.g., CNN).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Between 218 and 228" with a closing date of 8 November 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 207 1%
Between 207 and 217 7%
Between 218 and 228 39%
Between 229 and 239 39%
Between 240 and 250 10%
More than 250 4%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 88
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 406
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 527
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.077
2.
-0.077
3.
-0.074
4.
-0.068
5.
-0.067

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username