Started Jun 24, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 09, 2022 03:00AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many US House seats will Republicans win in the 2022 midterm elections?

The 2022 midterm elections are scheduled for 8 November 2022, when Republicans hope to regain control of the House of Representatives (Politico, FiveThirtyEight). The outcome will be determined using 2022 election results. If a Republican candidate appears on the ballot and receives the most votes, that seat would count toward the total irrespective of the incapacitation of that candidate (e.g., CNN).

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The question closed "Between 218 and 228" with a closing date of 8 November 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 207 1%
Between 207 and 217 7%
Between 218 and 228 39%
Between 229 and 239 39%
Between 240 and 250 10%
More than 250 4%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 88
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 406
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 527
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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