What will the Italy-Germany 10-year bond spread be on 16 December 2022?
Started
Jun 24, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 16, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Closed Dec 16, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
As the ECB moves to change course on monetary policy, government bond yields in southern Europe have jumped (MarketWatch, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using "Italy-Germany 10 Year Bond Spread" data as reported by YCharts for 16 December 2022 (YCharts).
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The question closed "Between 2.00% and 2.50%, inclusive" with a closing date of 16 December 2022.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 1.00% | 0% | |
| Between 1.00% and 1.50%, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 1.50% but less than 2.00% | 27% | |
| Between 2.00% and 2.50%, inclusive | 73% | |
| More than 2.50% but less than 3.00% | 0% | |
| Between 3.00% and 3.50%, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 3.50% | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 24 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 253 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 587 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
