Foxes Ask:

Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of a country in the Horn of Africa before 1 April 2023?

Started Jun 24, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Drought, conflict, and other factors have left millions in the Horn of Africa facing potential famine (ABC News, Reliefweb, Integrated Food Security Phase Classification - Mapping Tool). For the purposes of this question, the countries in the Horn of Africa are Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda (Britannica). For general information on how famines are declared, see: NPR. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration would not count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 19.96%
No 80.04%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 264
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 753
Average for questions older than 6 months: 596
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.062
2.
-0.873
5.
-0.735

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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