Before 1 July 2023, will the Federal Reserve announce a cut in the US federal funds rate?

Started Jul 01, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

As the Federal Reserve increases interest rates to combat inflation, there are concerns whether the US will be pushed into recession (JP Morgan, The Hill, US News & World Report). Conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market deteriorates, if inflation falls) would not count. The last time the Federal Reserve announced a cut to the US federal funds rate was 15 March 2020 (Federal Reserve).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 July 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5.96%
No 94.04%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 286
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 1282
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.073621
2.
-0.073621
3.
-0.072713
4.
-0.072385

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username