As the Federal Reserve increases interest rates to combat inflation, there are concerns whether the US will be pushed into recession (JP Morgan, The Hill, US News & World Report). Conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market deteriorates, if inflation falls) would not count. The last time the Federal Reserve announced a cut to the US federal funds rate was 15 March 2020 (Federal Reserve).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.