What will US holiday season retail sales be for 2022 relative to the 2021 holiday season?
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
As high inflation and inventory issues persist in the US, retail sales are being closely watched (NASDAQ, Axios, FRED, Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using seasonally adjusted "Retail Trade and Food Services, ex Auto and Gas" data from the US Census Bureau for November and December 2022 relative to the same period in 2021, expected to be released in January 2023 (US Census Bureau). To retrieve the data, under the "Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report" section, select "Time Series/Trend Charts: Create your own customizable time series." Do the following in each of the five options: (1) select "Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services," (2) set Start at 2021 and End at 2022, (3) select "44W72: Retail Trade and Food Services, ex Auto and Gas," (4) select "Sales - Monthly," (5) select "U.S. Total," and leave only "Seasonally Adjusted" checked. As of 29 June 2022, the Bureau reported combined sales for November and December 2021 of 923,537 (millions of dollars).
The question closed "Higher by more than 5.0% but less than 7.5%" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.
|Possible Answer||Correct?||Final Crowd Forecast|
|Lower by 5.0% or more||0%|
|Lower by more than 2.5% but less than 5.0%||0%|
|Lower by between 0.0% and 2.5%, inclusive||1%|
|Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 2.5%||7%|
|Higher by between 2.5% and 5.0%, inclusive||22%|
|Higher by more than 5.0% but less than 7.5%||36%|
|Higher by 7.5% or more||34%|
Crowd Forecast Profile
|Number of Forecasters||42|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 220|
|Number of Forecasts||262|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 615|
|Participants in this question vs. all forecasters||average|