What will US holiday season retail sales be for 2022 relative to the 2021 holiday season?

Started Jul 01, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

As high inflation and inventory issues persist in the US, retail sales are being closely watched (NASDAQ, Axios, FRED, Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using seasonally adjusted "Retail Trade and Food Services, ex Auto and Gas" data from the US Census Bureau for November and December 2022 relative to the same period in 2021, expected to be released in January 2023 (US Census Bureau). To retrieve the data, under the "Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report" section, select "Time Series/Trend Charts: Create your own customizable time series." Do the following in each of the five options: (1) select "Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services," (2) set Start at 2021 and End at 2022, (3) select "44W72: Retail Trade and Food Services, ex Auto and Gas," (4) select "Sales - Monthly," (5) select "U.S. Total," and leave only "Seasonally Adjusted" checked. As of 29 June 2022, the Bureau reported combined sales for November and December 2021 of 923,537 (millions of dollars).

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The question closed "Higher by more than 5.0% but less than 7.5%" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower by 5.0% or more 0%
Lower by more than 2.5% but less than 5.0% 0%
Lower by between 0.0% and 2.5%, inclusive 1%
Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 2.5% 7%
Higher by between 2.5% and 5.0%, inclusive 22%
Higher by more than 5.0% but less than 7.5% 36%
Higher by 7.5% or more 34%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 42
Average for questions older than 6 months: 220
Number of Forecasts 262
Average for questions older than 6 months: 615
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

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Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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