When will Iraq's Mosul Dam collapse?

Started Jul 19, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2018 07:59AM UTC

The U.S. government warned in February 2016 that there is a serious risk of Iraq's Mosul Dam collapsing, potentially killing hundreds of thousands of people and knocking out a significant portion of Iraq's electricity supply (U.S. Embassy in Iraq, NY Times). Recommended Questions When will anti-Islamic State forces retake Raqqa? Will the government of Afghanistan and the Afghan Taliban participate in official talks before 1 March 2017? Iraq's Mosul dam has not collapsed. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 January 2017 0%
Between 1 January 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive 0%
Not before 1 January 2018 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 425
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 1966
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.006
2.
-0.006
4.
-0.006
5.
-0.006

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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