Sturgii asks:
What will be the percentage change in real German GDP in the fourth quarter of 2022 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2021?
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
The fallout from Russia's war in Ukraine has taken a toll on the German economy that is expected to continue (Politico, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using Eurostat data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) (FRED). The real GDP figure for the fourth quarter of 2022 will be divided by the same figure for the fourth quarter of 2021 as first reported in 2023. As of 20 July 2022, Germany's real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2021 was reported as 740,245.3 million euros.
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The question closed "Higher by between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Lower by 4.0% or more | 4% | |
| Lower by between 2.0% and 4.0%, inclusive | 11% | |
| Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 2.0% | 50% | |
| Higher by between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive | 32% | |
| Higher by more than 2.0% | 3% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 54 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 180 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 305 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 527 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
