Sturgii asks:

What will be the percentage change in real German GDP in the fourth quarter of 2022 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2021?

Started Jul 22, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

The fallout from Russia's war in Ukraine has taken a toll on the German economy that is expected to continue (Politico, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using Eurostat data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) (FRED). The real GDP figure for the fourth quarter of 2022 will be divided by the same figure for the fourth quarter of 2021 as first reported in 2023. As of 20 July 2022, Germany's real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2021 was reported as 740,245.3 million euros.

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The question closed "Higher by between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower by 4.0% or more 4%
Lower by between 2.0% and 4.0%, inclusive 11%
Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 2.0% 50%
Higher by between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive 32%
Higher by more than 2.0% 3%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 54
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 305
Average for questions older than 6 months: 596
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.424
2.
-0.408
4.
-0.289

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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