Started Jul 22, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Sturgii asks:

What will be the percentage change in real German GDP in the fourth quarter of 2022 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2021?

The fallout from Russia's war in Ukraine has taken a toll on the German economy that is expected to continue (Politico, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using Eurostat data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) (FRED). The real GDP figure for the fourth quarter of 2022 will be divided by the same figure for the fourth quarter of 2021 as first reported in 2023. As of 20 July 2022, Germany's real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2021 was reported as 740,245.3 million euros.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Lower by 4.0% or more 2.90% +0.00% -0.85% -11.35%
Lower by between 2.0% and 4.0%, inclusive 19.70% +0.00% -2.85% -10.45%
Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 2.0% 52.05% +0.00% +2.50% +11.35%
Higher by between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive 24.50% +0.00% +1.35% +10.75%
Higher by more than 2.0% 0.85% +0.00% -0.15% -0.30%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username