Started Jul 29, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 25, 2022 07:01AM UTC

404_NOT_FOUND asks:

To which political party will the next prime minister of Italy belong after the 2022 general election?

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi resigned in July 2022 amid tensions within his coalition government (CNBC, NPR, France 24, US News & World Report, Politico - Italy Poll of Polls). The next general election is scheduled for 25 September 2022. The question will be suspended on 25 September 2022, the scheduled date of the next general election, and the outcome determined once a new prime minister is sworn in. If no new prime minister has been sworn in and a second general election is called, the question would close "None of the above." The appointment of a new caretaker prime minister would not count.

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The question closed "Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia)" with a closing date of 22 October 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia) 80%
Democratic Party (Partito Democratico) 11%
Five Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle) 3%
Forward Italy (Forza Italia) 1%
League (Lega) 1%
None of the above 4%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 64
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 170
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 527
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.176
2.
-0.152
3.
-0.101
4.
-0.089
5.
-0.075

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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