Started Jul 29, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 29, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Will Ranil Wickremesinghe cease to be the president of Sri Lanka before 29 December 2022?

After former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled Sri Lanka and resigned his office amid widespread economic protests, the Parliament of Sri Lanka elected former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe to serve out the remainder of Rajapaksa's term (France 24, Voice of America).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 29 December 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.62%
No 98.38%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 63
Average for questions older than 6 months: 239
Number of Forecasts 378
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.067
2.
-0.066
3.
-0.06
4.
-0.054
5.
-0.053

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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