Started Jul 29, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 09, 2022 03:00AM UTC

MrLittleTexas asks:

What percentage of the vote will the Republican candidate win in the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?

The incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott is set to face Democratic former US Representative Beto O'Rourke in the 2022 gubernatorial election (The Hill, Texas Tribune, FiveThirtyEight).

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The question closed "More than 50.0% but less than 55.0%" with a closing date of 8 November 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
50.0% or less and will not win the election 4%
50.0% or less but will win the election 9%
More than 50.0% but less than 55.0% 57%
55.0% or more 30%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 52
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 177
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 527
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.322
2.
-0.304
3.
-0.286
4.
-0.275
5.
-0.231

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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