Will Russia officially recognize Transnistria (Pridnestrovskaia Moldavskaia Republic) in Moldova as an independent state before 1 April 2023?

Started Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, there is continued speculation that Putin may recognize Transnistria, a breakaway region in eastern Moldova on Ukraine's western border, which already hosts Russian peacekeepers (Britannica, European Council on Foreign Relations, Balkan Insight, G4 Media [in Romanian]).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2.78%
No 97.22%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 136
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 521
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.043
2.
-0.043
3.
-0.04
4.
-0.028
5.
-0.027

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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