Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
What will be the total passenger throughput at airports in China in December 2022?
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Amid a continued "Zero COVID" policy, China has seen major air travel disruptions and low passenger counts in 2022 (CGTN, FlightGlobal). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and outcome determined using data as first reported by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) (CAAC). For December 2021, the CAAC reported Passenger Throughput of 5590.3 (in units of 10,000), or 55,903,000 passengers (CAAC - Key Performance Indicators December 2021).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
NOTE 18 October 2022: We are aware of issues accessing the data on the CAAC site. We aren't certain of the cause, but are reviewing options. For the time being, the question will remain open.
NOTE 25 October 2022: The CAAC site appears to be functioning again as before.
The question closed "Between 20 million and 40 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
|Possible Answer||Correct?||Final Crowd Forecast|
|Fewer than 20 million||7%|
|Between 20 million and 40 million, inclusive||53%|
|More than 40 million but fewer than 60 million||30%|
|Between 60 million and 80 million, inclusive||8%|
|More than 80 million but fewer than 100 million||2%|
|100 million or more||0%|
Crowd Forecast Profile
|Number of Forecasters||29|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 229|
|Number of Forecasts||191|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 637|
|Participants in this question vs. all forecasters||average|