Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the total passenger throughput at airports in China in December 2022?

Started Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Amid a continued "Zero COVID" policy, China has seen major air travel disruptions and low passenger counts in 2022 (CGTN, FlightGlobal). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and outcome determined using data as first reported by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) (CAAC). For December 2021, the CAAC reported Passenger Throughput of 5590.3 (in units of 10,000), or 55,903,000 passengers (CAAC - Key Performance Indicators December 2021).

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NOTE 18 October 2022: We are aware of issues accessing the data on the CAAC site. We aren't certain of the cause, but are reviewing options. For the time being, the question will remain open.

NOTE 25 October 2022: The CAAC site appears to be functioning again as before.


The question closed "Between 20 million and 40 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 20 million 7%
Between 20 million and 40 million, inclusive 53%
More than 40 million but fewer than 60 million 30%
Between 60 million and 80 million, inclusive 8%
More than 80 million but fewer than 100 million 2%
100 million or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 29
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 191
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.147414
3.
-0.06394
4.
-0.056899
5.
-0.048438

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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