Amid a continued "Zero COVID" policy, China has seen major air travel disruptions and low passenger counts in 2022 (CGTN, FlightGlobal). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and outcome determined using data as first reported by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) (CAAC). For December 2021, the CAAC reported Passenger Throughput of 5590.3 (in units of 10,000), or 55,903,000 passengers (CAAC - Key Performance Indicators December 2021).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 18 October 2022: We are aware of issues accessing the data on the CAAC site. We aren't certain of the cause, but are reviewing options. For the time being, the question will remain open.

NOTE 25 October 2022: The CAAC site appears to be functioning again as before.