Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will an electrical blackout lasting at least one hour and affecting 60 million or more people in the US and/or Canada occur before 1 April 2023?

Started Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

There are concerns over US vulnerability to potential power outages/blackouts due to energy demand, aging infrastructure, and cyberattacks (ASCE, Council on Foreign Relations). The outcome will be determined using credible open-source reporting. Examples of previous major blackouts affecting the US and/or Canada include The Great Northeast Blackout of 1965 and the Northeast Blackout of 2003 (History.com, BBC). Intentional "rolling blackouts" would not count (Constellation Energy Resources).

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NOTE 19 September 2022: The question is concerned with a single blackout incident like the examples in the question description. For the purposes of this question, consider US territories to be "in the US."


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.08%
No 98.92%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 95
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 327
Average for questions older than 6 months: 578
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.002589
3.
-0.002589
4.
-0.002586
5.
-0.002557

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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