Started Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will an electrical blackout lasting at least one hour and affecting 60 million or more people in the US and/or Canada occur before 1 April 2023?

There are concerns over US vulnerability to potential power outages/blackouts due to energy demand, aging infrastructure, and cyberattacks (ASCE, Council on Foreign Relations). The outcome will be determined using credible open-source reporting. Examples of previous major blackouts affecting the US and/or Canada include The Great Northeast Blackout of 1965 and the Northeast Blackout of 2003 (, BBC). Intentional "rolling blackouts" would not count (Constellation Energy Resources).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Yes 3.50% +0.00% -0.50%
No 96.50% -0.00% +0.50%

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