Started Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will an electrical blackout lasting at least one hour and affecting 60 million or more people in the US and/or Canada occur before 1 April 2023?

There are concerns over US vulnerability to potential power outages/blackouts due to energy demand, aging infrastructure, and cyberattacks (ASCE, Council on Foreign Relations). The outcome will be determined using credible open-source reporting. Examples of previous major blackouts affecting the US and/or Canada include The Great Northeast Blackout of 1965 and the Northeast Blackout of 2003 (History.com, BBC). Intentional "rolling blackouts" would not count (Constellation Energy Resources).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 19 September 2022: The question is concerned with a single blackout incident like the examples in the question description. For the purposes of this question, consider US territories to be "in the US."

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 11.34% +0.10% -1.94% -5.97%
No 88.66% -0.10% +1.94% +5.97%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username