Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will an electrical blackout lasting at least one hour and affecting 60 million or more people in the US and/or Canada occur before 1 April 2023?
Closed Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
There are concerns over US vulnerability to potential power outages/blackouts due to energy demand, aging infrastructure, and cyberattacks (ASCE, Council on Foreign Relations). The outcome will be determined using credible open-source reporting. Examples of previous major blackouts affecting the US and/or Canada include The Great Northeast Blackout of 1965 and the Northeast Blackout of 2003 (History.com, BBC). Intentional "rolling blackouts" would not count (Constellation Energy Resources).
NOTE 19 September 2022: The question is concerned with a single blackout incident like the examples in the question description. For the purposes of this question, consider US territories to be "in the US."
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.
|Possible Answer||Correct?||Final Crowd Forecast|
Crowd Forecast Profile
|Number of Forecasters||95|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 216|
|Number of Forecasts||327|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 607|
|Participants in this question vs. all forecasters||average|