The Economist asks:

Will Saudi Arabia announce that it will normalize relations with the State of Israel before 1 March 2023?

Started Aug 19, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Like most Arab states, Saudi Arabia does not officially recognize Israel despite some cooperation between the two countries (France 24, International Bar Association). Various Arab states recognized or agreed to normalize relations with Israel in 2020 (e.g., NY Times, CNN, NPR, CNN).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 March 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 4.21%
No 95.79%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 285
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 966
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.014741
2.
-0.014337
5.
-0.014138

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username