Started Sep 12, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Will the value of the FAO Cereals Price Index for October 2022 be higher than it was for September 2022?

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Indicies fell from highs reached in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but they remain elevated (CNBC, UN). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2022 and the outcome determined using nominal data reported by the FAO for Cereals for September 2022 and October 2022 as reported in November 2022 (FAO, see table near bottom of page). As of 1 September 2022, the value for the Cereals Price Index for July 2022 was 147.3. To download historical nominal data, click either "Excel" or "CSV" above the chart titled "FAO Food Price Index in nominal and real terms."

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 1 November 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 78.87%
No 21.13%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 137
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 454
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 519
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.383
2.
-0.383
4.
-0.363
5.
-0.357

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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