Will the US civilian labor force participation rate reach or exceed 63.0% for any month before July 2023?

Started Sep 02, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

The COVID-19 pandemic hit the us labor market hard, and labor force participation has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels (US News & World Report, Brookings Institution, Fox Business). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2022 and the outcome determined using Bureau of Labor Statistics data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (FRED).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 July 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.85%
No 98.15%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 65
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 415
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.051
3.
-0.051
4.
-0.051
5.
-0.049

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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