Started Sep 16, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Mar 17, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Between 16 September 2022 and 16 March 2023, will Russia publicly announce that it has moved nuclear weapons into either Belarus or Ukraine?

As fighting continues in Ukraine, there are continuing concerns that Russia may deploy nuclear weapons westward in the region (ABC News, BBC, DefenseNews). Ukraine includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. For the purposes of this question, Russia's detonation of a nuclear device in either Belarus or Ukraine would be considered a Russian public announcement that it moved nuclear weapons into either Belarus or Ukraine.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Yes 19.30% -2.16% +5.30%
No 80.70% +2.16% -5.30%

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