Before 1 April 2023, will Russia detonate a nuclear device outside of Russian territory or airspace?
Closed Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Amid successful counterattacks by Ukrainian forces in the east of the country, there are concerns that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons (The Hill, US News & World Report). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Mass.gov).
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NOTE 7 October 2022: "Russian territory" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.49% | |
| No | 99.51% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 264 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1180 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 585 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
