Before 1 April 2023, will Russia detonate a nuclear device outside of Russian territory or airspace?

Started Sep 16, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Amid successful counterattacks by Ukrainian forces in the east of the country, there are concerns that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons (The Hill, US News & World Report). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (

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NOTE 7 October 2022: "Russian territory" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.49%
No 99.51%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 264
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 1180
Average for questions older than 6 months: 595
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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