Started Sep 16, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Mar 17, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Between 16 September 2022 and 16 March 2023, will lethal confrontations between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel (forces) of Georgia and those of Russia, Abkhazia, and/or South Ossetia result in 100 or more fatalities?

Amid Russia's war in Ukraine and renewed fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan, some officials in Georgia are calling for a referendum on reclaiming the territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia lost in Russia's invasion in 2008 (Odessa Journal, US Institute of Peace, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, NPR). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results in a fatality (total, not each) for forces of either side.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Yes 35.43% +0.00% +11.19%
No 64.57% -0.00% -11.19%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username