Between 16 September 2022 and 16 March 2023, will lethal confrontations between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel (forces) of Georgia and those of Russia, Abkhazia, and/or South Ossetia result in 100 or more fatalities?
Closed Mar 17, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Amid Russia's war in Ukraine and renewed fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan, some officials in Georgia are calling for a referendum on reclaiming the territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia lost in Russia's invasion in 2008 (Odessa Journal, US Institute of Peace, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, NPR). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results in a fatality (total, not each) for forces of either side.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 17 March 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.26% | |
| No | 99.74% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 77 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 281 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
