Started Sep 26, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Will more than 2,500,000 federal firearm background checks be initiated in the US in October 2022?

Background checks for gun purchases have fallen from historic highs in 2020 and 2021, but remain above pre-pandemic levels (National Interest). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI (FBI.gov). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first reported for October 2022, expected in early November 2022. For October 2021, the FBI reported 2,593,168 firearm background checks.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 1 November 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 66.97%
No 33.03%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 162
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 172
Number of Forecasts 367
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 380
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.179
2.
-0.17
4.
-0.166
5.
-0.159

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username