Between 16 September 2022 and 31 October 2022, will anti-government protests in Iran result in 200 or more protester fatalities, according to Iran Human Rights?

Started Sep 23, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 12, 2022 06:00AM UTC

Widespread protests have broken out in Iran after a woman who was arrested for breaking hijab rules died in police custody (NPR, Al-Monitor, CBS News). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify, though not necessarily at the same time. As of 22 September 2022, Iran Human Rights reported that 31 protesters had been killed (Iran Human Rights). The outcome will be determined using available information no later than 4 November 2022.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 11 October 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 94.00%
No 6.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 74
Average for questions older than 6 months: 215
Number of Forecasts 257
Average for questions older than 6 months: 605
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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