Started Sep 23, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 12, 2022 06:00AM UTC

Between 16 September 2022 and 31 October 2022, will anti-government protests in Iran result in 200 or more protester fatalities, according to Iran Human Rights?

Widespread protests have broken out in Iran after a woman who was arrested for breaking hijab rules died in police custody (NPR, Al-Monitor, CBS News). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify, though not necessarily at the same time. As of 22 September 2022, Iran Human Rights reported that 31 protesters had been killed (Iran Human Rights). The outcome will be determined using available information no later than 4 November 2022.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 11 October 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 94.00%
No 6.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 74
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 172
Number of Forecasts 257
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 380
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.196
2.
-0.19
3.
-0.152
4.
-0.145
5.
-0.144

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username