Between 16 September 2022 and 31 October 2022, will anti-government protests in Iran result in 200 or more protester fatalities, according to Iran Human Rights?
Closed Oct 12, 2022 06:00AM UTC
Widespread protests have broken out in Iran after a woman who was arrested for breaking hijab rules died in police custody (NPR, Al-Monitor, CBS News). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify, though not necessarily at the same time. As of 22 September 2022, Iran Human Rights reported that 31 protesters had been killed (Iran Human Rights). The outcome will be determined using available information no later than 4 November 2022.
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 11 October 2022.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 94.00% | |
| No | 6.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 74 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 215 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 257 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 605 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
