Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many passenger cars will be produced in the EU in 2023?

Started Sep 28, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) (ACEA). As of the launch of this question, the ACEA reported 9,946,696 cars produced in 2021.

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The question closed "Between 11.5 million and 12.5 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 9.5 million 1%
Between 9.5 million and 10.5 million, inclusive 4%
More than 10.5 million but fewer than 11.5 million 26%
Between 11.5 million and 12.5 million, inclusive 60%
More than 12.5 million 9%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 59
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 287
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.65579
2.
-0.648037
3.
-0.4553
4.
-0.436828
5.
-0.411487

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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