Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be Nike's sales in Greater China in its 2023 fiscal year (FY2023)?

Started Oct 04, 2022 05:30PM UTC
Closed Jun 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Nike's sales, or revenues, have generally recovered from the worst of COVID, except for Greater China (CNBC, Retail Dive). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2023 and the outcome determined using data from Nike's 2023 Annual Report (Nike - Investor Reports). In FY2022, Nike reported total sales of $7,547 million, or $7.547 billion. (Nike - 2022 Form 10-K, see page 39 of the report). Nike's FY2023 runs from 1 June 2022 to 31 May 2023, and "Greater China" includes mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan (CNBC).

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The question closed "Between $7.0 billion and $7.5 billion, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 June 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $7.0 billion 6%
Between $7.0 billion and $7.5 billion, inclusive 35%
More than $7.5 billion but less than $8.0 billion 30%
Between $8.0 billion and $8.5 billion, inclusive 14%
More than $8.5 billion 15%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 26
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 69
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.152178
2.
-0.113661
3.
-0.092441
4.
-0.087052
5.
-0.07853

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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