How much liquified natural gas (LNG) will the US export between October 2022 and March 2023?

Started Sep 30, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

US LNG exports will be essential for Europe and others as they attempt to wean themselves off Russian gas as Russia's war in Ukraine continues (US News & World Report, Deutsche Welle, OilPrice.com, Energy Information Administration). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Energy Information Administration for October 2022 to March 2023 as of its first report for March 2023 (Energy Information Administration - Liquified US Natural Gas Exports). As of the launch of this question, the EIA reported the US exported 1,984,552 million cubic feet (mcf), or 1.984552 trillion cubic feet (tcf), from October 2021 to March 2022.

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The question closed "Between 1.900 tcf and 2.025 tcf, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 1.900 tcf 9%
Between 1.900 tcf and 2.025 tcf, inclusive 75%
More than 2.025 tcf but less than 2.150 tcf 13%
Between 2.150 tcf and 2.275 tcf, inclusive 3%
More than 2.275 tcf but less than 2.400 tcf 0%
2.400 tcf or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 59
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 353
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.371792
2.
-0.294939
3.
-0.292004
4.
-0.289423
5.
-0.272161

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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