Started Oct 04, 2022 05:30PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Before 1 November 2022, will a snap election be called for the Northern Ireland Assembly?

A new Northern Ireland executive has yet to be formed since election in May 2022, and the UK's Secretary of State for Northern Ireland has said he will have to call a snap election on 28 October 2022 if a new executive is not formed by then (Politico, BelfastLive, Sky News, Northern Ireland Executive).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 November 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 27.17%
No 72.83%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 51
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 172
Number of Forecasts 192
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 380
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.607
2.
-0.607
4.
-0.607
5.
-0.607

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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