Started Oct 04, 2022 05:30PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 25, 2022 01:54PM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 April 2023, will Liz Truss cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?

Since becoming the UK prime minister in early September 2022, Liz Truss is facing a number of challenges, including blowback from an economic plan and political tensions in Northern Ireland (NPR, NBC News, BBC).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 25 October 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 99.66%
No 0.34%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 125
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 172
Number of Forecasts 440
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 380
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.836
2.
-0.775
3.
-0.706
4.
-0.705
5.
-0.68

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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