Before 15 April 2023, will Ali Khamenei either flee Iran or cease to be its supreme leader?

Started Oct 14, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 15, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Anti-government protests have grown throughout Iran in the wake of Mahsa Amini's death while in custody (US News & World Report, Time, CNBC). Whether or not Khamenei has fled Iran will be determined using credible open source media reporting.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 15 April 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.24%
No 99.76%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 82
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 297
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.017084
2.
-0.016602
3.
-0.016602
4.
-0.015895
5.
-0.013959

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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