Between 16 September 2022 and 31 December 2022, will anti-government protests in Iran result in 1,000 or more protester fatalities, according to Iran Human Rights?

Started Oct 14, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Widespread protests have broken out in Iran after a woman who was arrested for breaking hijab rules died in police custody (NPR, Al-Monitor, CBS News). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify, though not necessarily at the same time. As of 12 October 2022, Iran Human Rights reported that 201 protesters had been killed (Iran Human Rights). The outcome will be determined using available information no later than 4 January 2023.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2.47%
No 97.53%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 75
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 373
Average for questions older than 6 months: 578
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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