JamesEE asks:

How many total vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2023?

Started Oct 21, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Tesla produced a record 343,830 vehicles in the third quarter of 2022, and production is expected to rise into 2023 (InsideEVs, Tesla Owners Online). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under "Shareholder Deck" here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. Tesla's total deliveries of vehicles during the first three quarters of 2022 was 908,573 (Tesla - Q3 2022 Update, see page 7).

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The question closed "Between 1.7 million and 2.0 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 1.1 million 3%
Between 1.1 million and 1.4 million, inclusive 4%
More than 1.4 million but fewer than 1.7 million 5%
Between 1.7 million and 2.0 million, inclusive 78%
More than 2.0 million but fewer than 2.3 million 5%
Between 2.3 million and 2.6 million, inclusive 2%
More than 2.6 million 3%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 87
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 404
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.074922
2.
-0.073878
3.
-0.067507
4.
-0.066842
5.
-0.06356

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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