The Economist and Private Superforecasting Workshop ask:

In the current conflict in Ukraine, will Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire before 5 May 2023?

Started Nov 04, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 05, 2023 07:01AM UTC

While various parties have called for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, the fighting continues (Al Arabiya, Daily Beast, Parley Policy Initiative). An announced ceasefire must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count, and must include the whole of Ukraine. For the purposes of this question, "Ukraine" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. The Ukrainian government as recognized by the European Union must be party to the announced ceasefire to count. The date a ceasefire would take effect is immaterial.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 5 May 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2.81%
No 97.19%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 465
Average for questions older than 6 months: 229
Number of Forecasts 1310
Average for questions older than 6 months: 637
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username